铁岭地区近53年降水变化趋势分析  

Analysis on Variation Trend of Precipitation of Tieling Area in Recent 53 Years

作　　者：杨艳萍[1] 庞丽英[1] 王丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省铁岭市气象局,辽宁铁岭112000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第31期15385-15386,共2页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：[目的]分析铁岭地区降水变化趋势,为当地农业经济发展提供气候依据。[方法]在假定降水量为连续因子的状态下,运用最小二乘法进行一元线性回归拟合,依托Excel程序绘制趋势线和渐近线。[结果]铁岭地区降水量呈下降趋势,年总量及生长季减少了60～70 mm,春季减少13 mm,夏季减少40 mm,秋季减少20 mm,冬季增加约3 mm;1999年之后减少最明显。[结论]铁岭地区降水量比较充沛,由于降水量的减少、变率的增大,致使阶段性干旱有所增加,为适应气候的变化应及时调整农业产业结构。[Objective] The aim was to analyze the variation trend of precipitation in Tieling area and provide climate basis for development of agricultural economy. [ Method ] Under the assumption that precipitation was continuous factor, simple liner regression was made by the least square method. The trendline and asymptote were drawn according to Excel procedure. [ Results] The precipitation in Tieling area showed a downtrend. The total amount and precipitation in growing seasons decreased by 60 to 70 rnm, in which, precipitation decreased by 13 mm in spring, 40 mm in summer, 20 nun in autumn and in winter it increased by 3 ram. The decrease of precipitation after 1999 was very obvious. [ Conclusion ] The precipitation in Tieling area was relatively abundant. Due to the decrease of precipitation and increase of variation rate, the frequency of periodic drought was increased. Agricultural industrial structure should be adjusted in time so as to adapt to the variation of climate.

关 键 词：降水 趋势 农业 铁岭 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]