基于PSR模型的城市水安全评价研究  

On the urban water security assessment based on the pressure-state-response model

作　　者：靳春玲[1] 贡力[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2009年第5期104-108,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：甘肃省建设科技攻关项目(JK2008-27);兰州交通大学科技基金项目(XZX-40605)

摘　　要：通过探讨城市水安全的概念,在对兰州市水资源情况深入研究的基础上,采用改进的PSR模型选取兰州市水安全影响因素,构建指标体系,用层次分析法确定指标权重,选取33个指标,5个级别划分来描述水安全状态;然后计算2000—2007年兰州市水安全评价综合指数序列,并在此基础上进行相关分析,找出主要影响因子。结果表明,兰州市水安全状况趋于改善,但压力、状态、响应呈现不同的变化幅度,人类社会经济活动对水环境的影响较大。建议加强防洪体系的建设;提高污水利用率;将循环经济、清洁生产的思路贯穿于每个企业乃至整个城市;建立以黄河水安全为主的应急机制;增加兰州市南北两山的绿化率;增加水利工程的投入,提高水资源承载力,确保水安全。The paper is aimed to introduce its discussion over the problem of the urban water security by taking Lanzhou as a case study sample. As is known, Lanzhou is a city lying on the famous Yellow River basin in North-West of China and known for its water-short situation. In such a situation, it is of extreme importance to make an indepth study over the water resource situation of the city and the surrounding areas so as to heighten the water resource exploration and exploitation efficiency. It is just from this need that we have developed an improved PSR model by selecting all the likely factors that may influence water-use security. When the assessment indicator system is established, all the assessment indicators to be used in the water security system are determined by the AHP method with 33 indicators and 5 grades chosen to describe the water security situation. Then we have worked out a set of composite indexes of water security assessment and all the factors affecting the successful assessments from the practical assessment experiences gained in the period between 2000 to 2007. The model proposed by this paper can provide better theoretical guidance for the economic development and inter-regional water security coordination. At the same time, it can also provide a common ground for exploration of more comprehensive advanced ideas for urban water security assessment systems. The results of the application of our model indicate that the water security state in situ in Lanzhou has been improved since 2000, but the pressure, state and public response are different. All in all, human economical activities have been playing a key role in the final analysis. In addition, the paper suggests that Lanzhou should strengthen its flood-controlling system while seeking the optimal utilization of the polluted water and developing water-recycled use system for water-saving and clean production. Another proposal here we would like to make is that the city should establish a more effective response mechanism to the Yellow River

关 键 词：水文学及水资源 城市水安全 PSR模型 AHP 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]