最大熵原理在地震时间间隔和震级分布中的应用  

The application of the maximum entropy principle in distribution of interval time and magnitude of earthquakes

作　　者：钱晓东[1] 秦嘉政[1] 李琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,中国昆明650224

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2009年第5期5-13,共9页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：云南省重点项目"云南强震活动与动力学研究"和中国地震局"小江断裂带的中长期地震潜势定量研究"项目(200708035)联合资助

摘　　要：基于最大熵原理,得到地震时间间隔和地震震级的概率分布函数。根据时间间隔分布,得到地震发震慨率,当概率上升达到警界值时,可对云南5级以上中强地震做出预测。6个月以内中短期预测对应率为91%;3个月以内,短临期预测对应率为73%。根据震级分布,得到用最大熵原理求出的地震理论发生次数,理论发震次数与实际较为接近。用最大熵原理求出了云南不同地区不同震级档次5级以上中强地震的复发周期。分析认为,云南7级以上大震危险性在逐步逼近,西部危险性高于东部。In this paper, we presents the probability distribution function of earthquakes obtained based On the maximum entropy principle. According to the distribution of interval time of earthquake, we obtain the recurrence probability of earthquake. We can make prediction of M≥5 moderate and strong earthquakes when the probability rising to meet dangerous line. For the short and medium term predictions within 6 months, the corresponding rate is 91%, and the short term and imminent predictions within 3 months is 73%. According to the distribution of magnitude, we calculated the number of earthquakes based on the maximum entropy principle. The theoretical value is better consistent with the actually occurred number of earthquakes. We obtained the recurrence periods of M≥5 moderate and strong earth-quakes of different magnitude and different regions in Yunnan. Our analysis shows that the risk of M≥7 major earthquake in Yunnan is gradually approaching, the risk in western region is higher than that in eastern.

关 键 词：最大熵原理 地震时间间隔 震级 分布函数 复发周期 

分 类 号：P315.3[天文地球—地震学]