福建省前汛期大暴雨短期客观预报方法研究  

The Studies of Short-term Objective Forecast of Heavy Rainfall in the Ex-period of Flood Season in Fujian Province

作　　者：刘爱鸣[1] 蔡义勇[1] 陈德花[1] 李白良[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象局,福州350001

出　　处：《福建气象》2003年第3期1-7,共7页

基　　金：本文得到“福建省自然科学基金项目”资助

摘　　要：本文分析了福建省前汛期大暴雨过程的气候特征和环流背景，总结出福建前汛期大暴雨的影响系统主要有切变线、台风和热带云团三类，并分别建立其大暴雨概念模型。同时还对北京T106产品中诸多物理量场与历史个例进行相关分析，得出福建省前汛期大暴雨的热、动力条件。在此基础上，应用天气系统‘自动识别技术，建立天气分型和物理量诊断分析相结合的福建省前汛期大暴雨客观预报方法。经历史资料回代和试运行表明，该方法预报效果良好。By the analysis of the weather characteristic and the process with the circulation background of the heavy rainfall, in the ex-period of the flood season in Fujian Province, it concludes that the influence systems of the heavy rainfall in the ex-period of flood season in Fujian Province primarily stage manners with 3 types： shear line, typhoon and tropical cloud, and establish its heavy rainfall concept model respectively.At the same time, related analysis of the measures to Peking T106 product inside many physical element and history examples, it gets the heat and motive for the heavy rainfall in the ex-period of the flood season in Fujian province.Based on it, applying the weather system to identify the technique automatically, we can establish the method of the weather types to measures which are combined together with the physics the diagnosis analyze of the objective forecast in heavy rainfall in the ex-period of flood season in Fujian province.Experiencing the history data and the trying movement enunciation, the method gets the certainly good result.

关 键 词：大暴雨 概念模型 天气型自动识别 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.6