结合全球气温上升预测值的21世纪长期海平面预测方法  

Prediction Method for Long-Term Sea Level in the 21st Century in the Light of the Predicted Values of Global Temperature Rise

作　　者：郑文振[1] 陈宗镛[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171 [2]青岛海洋大学,青岛266003

出　　处：《海洋通报》1998年第4期1-8,共8页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金会资助项目:49576294

摘　　要：温室效应引起气温上升,进而导致海平面上升。本文在整理和计算全球海平面观测资料求得海平面年速率的基础上,结合全球气温预测值,提出和建立了全球和任意港口的21世纪长期海平面预报方法。并对东南亚、南亚和日本的一些海平面上升较大的港口曼谷、马尼拉、戴蒙德港、神户、名古屋、横须贺和宫古等进行了21世纪的海平面预测,介绍了温室效应和温室气体的排放量限制问题。The green-house effect causes air temperature rise and further leads to the sea level rise. On the basis of obtaining the annual rate of sea level from sorting out and calculating the global sea-level observations and, in the light of the predicted values of global temperature, the paper has proposed and established the prediction method for the long term sea-level in the 21st century in the world and at any ports . It has also made a prediction of sea level in the 21st century for a few ports in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Japan such as Bankok, Manila, Diamond harbor, Kobe, Nagoya, Yokosuka and Miyako and given an introduction to the green-house effect and the problem of limiting the discharge of green-house gases.

关 键 词：温室效应 全球气温上升 海平面预报 21世纪 

分 类 号：P731.34[天文地球—海洋科学] P467