非常规突发事件的传播方式与应急决策  

Incidents' Transmit and the Decision-making of Solving

作　　者：赵剑波[1] 刘雯雯[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《改革》2009年第11期155-160,共6页Reform

摘　　要：非常规突发事件具有未知性、动态性、非预测性和影响滞后性的特征。非常规突发事件的发展受到各主体的风险认知、应急决策过程的影响,三者之间具有动态共同演化的关系,并同时决定了非常规突发事件发展的趋势和结果。认知过程应包括感知危机、探究根源、判断性质和评估危害四个阶段,应激决策包括变异、选择和协调三种行为。它们共同影响着事件的发展程度和传播方式。The paper suggests that irregular emergent events be unknown, dynamic, and impact-lagged. The evolution of irregular emergent events is influenced by the object of crisis perception and the process of decision-making. They have a co-evolution relationship, and determine the trend and outcome of its development simultaneously. As an interdisciplinary research base on biological immunity and industrial management, the paper proposed that the process of cognition including tension, search, interpretation and evaluation, and the behaviors including variation, selection and coordination, and both of them would influence the extent of development and the mechanism of spread.

关 键 词：风险认知 应急决策 共同演化 非常规突发事件 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学] P315.9[天文地球—地震学]