基于需求预测信息更新的零售商三阶段采购最优策略  

Research on Retailer's Optimal Purchasing Strategy of 3-phase Based on Demand Forecast Information Updating

作　　者：梁罗[1] 盛方正[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052 [2]上海市电力公司,上海200135

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2009年第5期531-536,共6页Journal of Systems & Management

摘　　要：考虑存在顾客需求预测信息更新下零售商最优订货策略,研究了三阶段订货模型,零售商首先在第1阶段订货,然后在第1和第2阶段之间实现需求预测信息更新,并在第2阶段调整第1阶段的订货水平,第3阶段顾客需求实现,此时零售商可以从实时市场购货以满足前2阶段订货不足的部分。给出了零售商的最优订货策略,并分析了需求预测信息和实际需求满足二维正态分布时,它们之间的相关系数对采购决策和零售商期望利润的影响。提出了计算最优采购策略的算法并证明了其收敛性。说明了预测信息和实际需求联系越密切,零售商第1阶段最优订货水平越高,同时零售商利润越高;如果信息和实际需求之间的相关系数确定,那么第1阶段最优订货水平就确定,而第2阶段订货水平和需求预测信息与第1阶段订货量有关。Considering optimal purchasing strategy under demand information updating. This paper stud- ies the 3-phase purchasing model of the retailer. The retailer can order commodity in the first phase, then he can update the demand information between the first and the second phase, and adjust the order level in the second phase. In the third phase, the customer demand is realized. Then the retailer can purchase the additional commodity from spot market. The optimal strategy has been given. Analyze the influence of the coefficient of information and final demand from customer on the optimal purchasing strategy and profit of the retailer under the assumption that the information and demand satisfy hi-normal distribution. The pa- per puts forward an algorithm to calculate the optimal strategy and proves its convergence. It has been demonstrated that the more relation between the forecast information and the final demand, the more order the retailer will put in the first phase and the more profit the retailer will get~ if the coefficient is fixed, the optimal order level in the first phase has been fixed. The order level at the second phase is related to the order level at the first phase and the demand forecast information observed.

关 键 词：信息更新 最优化 需求预测 

分 类 号：F252.21[经济管理—国民经济]