软件研发人力资源“候鸟现象”的Markov链模型  

Markov Chain Model of Migratory Bird Phenomenon in Software Engineers

作　　者：李静[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学,上海200030

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2009年第5期596-600,共5页Journal of Systems & Management

摘　　要：通过近年来数据的收集和整理,发现软件研发人力资源的流动呈现出规律性转移的现象,具有"春秋迁徙,一年为期","目标区域集中","目标企业明确"3个显著特征,因与候鸟的迁徙习性类似,称之为"候鸟现象"。基于该现象的特性,提出Markov链建模。算例的预测结果表明,Markov链模型误差较小,能够有效模拟"候鸟现象"的转移规律,得出合理的计算结果。Latest data shows that software engineer resources shift regularly in China software industry. Three rules could be figured out as ＂move at spring or autumn to stay another year＂ ＂between certain regions ＂with a foreseeable destination＇. This movement in terms of timing and route is defined as ＂migratory bird phenomenon＇. In order to research into the phenomenon, a Markov Chain model is built to describe and forecast software engineer resources shift in China. Solution shows that Markov Chain model is effective and efficient.

关 键 词：软件工程师 候鸟现象 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：O211.62[理学—概率论与数理统计]