性向与因果关系:对性向解释的进一步研究  

Propensity and Causality: A Further Study to the Propensity Interpretation of Modern Inductive Logic

作　　者：李旭燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范学院政法学院,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《湛江师范学院学报》2009年第5期90-94,共5页Journal of Zhanjiang Normal College

基　　金：教育部重大攻关课题(编号:05JZD008);广西教育厅科研项目(编号:200801LX420)

摘　　要：对因果关系如何与概率相联系这个问题的考虑导致了Humphreys’悖论的产生,单个事例性向解释和长趋势性向解释从不同的角度对Humphreys’悖论进行了解释。这两种性向解释形式还说明了性向与因果关系的联系,根据长趋势性向解释,性向不是表示原因的;米勒和后期波普尔的单个事例性向解释认为有条件的事件概率不涉及任何类型的因果联系,而费特塞把概然的因果演算看作是一种非科尔莫哥洛夫概率论。The consideration of the question about how causality links to probability leads to the production of Humphreys＇paradox, the single ease propensity interpretation and the long--run propensity interpretation explain Humphreys＇paradox from different points of view. The two forms of propensity interpretation also illustrate contact of propensity and causality according to the long run propensity interpretation, propensity is not causal the single case propensity interpretation of Miller and the later Popper thinks event conditional probabilities do not involve any kind of causal link, Fezter speaks of the probabilistic causal calculus as a non--Kolmogorovian probability theoty.

关 键 词：Humphreys’悖论 性向 因果关系 

分 类 号：B815.3[哲学宗教—逻辑学]