中国资产价格与货币政策反应函数模拟  

Simulation on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reaction Function of China

作　　者：唐齐鸣[1] 熊洁敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2009年第11期104-115,共12页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部"国际金融危机应对研究"应急课题(2009JYJR059)资助

摘　　要：本文分别估计我国考虑或不考虑以股价、房价为代表的资产价格的IS-Phillips模型,进而分别推出我国考虑资产价格与忽视资产价格的货币政策反应函数,并据此对经济进行模拟分析。研究结果显示,我国股价和房价对产出缺口有较为显著的作用。如果货币政策反应函数忽视资产价格,将导致更大的损失。因此,本文建议我国央行在制定利率时应考虑资产价格对实体经济的影响;同时为了兼顾利率的平滑性,还应完善对资产市场的监管。This paper estimates Chinese IS-Phillips models. One takes account of asset prices, and the other does not. Further, the paper concludes the corre- sponding monetary policy reaction functions, simulates Chinese economy. According to the result, prices of house and stock have affected Chinese real economy, and if the central bank ignores the impact of asset prices, there will be greater loss. Therefore, the paper suggests Chinese central bank should take asset prices into account while setting the interest rate and improve the supervision and regulation on the asset market to maintain smoothness of the interest rate.

关 键 词：资产价格 货币政策反应函数 模拟 IS-Phillips模型 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]