应用综合前兆异常月频度判定地震进入中短期的研究  

APPLICATION OF THE MONTHLY FREQUENCY OF COMPREHENSIVE PRECURSORY ANOMALIES TO DETERMINATION OF SH0RT-AND MEDIUM-TERM SEISMICITY

作　　者：李献智[1] 侯建盛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,中国北京100036

出　　处：《地震》1998年第4期337-347,共11页Earthquake

基　　金：国家地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!95-04

摘　　要：应用震后资料总结和震前所判定的异常资料研究了1975～1996年的44个震次。结果表明，地震孕育进入中短期时无论是近场前兆异常、远场前兆异常，还是远、近场均有的前兆异常，其综合前兆异常月频度一般同时呈现出2个明显特征：①月频度累加曲线呈现为非线性加速形态；②同时月额度变化速率出现正异常。二者相结合，一般可以判定出地震孕育是否进入中短期阶段。由于研究内容广泛和取得的中短期特征明显，因此，所得结果具有较强的可操作性和普遍性。The precursory data observed before and after the 44 earthquakes occurred during 1975～1996 are analyzed. The research results show that when the seismicity entered into the short- and medium- term stag of earthquake preparation, the monthly frequency of comprehensive precursors, including the far-field precursors, the near-field anomalies and near-field far-field combined precursors are significantly characterized with the following aspects: 1. The cumulative curves of monthly frequency accelerate nonlinearly; 2. Varia-tion rate of monthly frequency is positive- According to the two features, it is easy to dis-tinguish the short-term and medium-term seismicity. The method can be used widely and easily based on the broadly studied data set and the obvious anomalies.

关 键 词：孕震阶段 前兆异常 综合前兆特征 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]