经济危机下服务贸易的弱周期性研究:以美国为例  

Empirical Study on Weak-Business Cycle of Trade in Service during Economic Crisis

作　　者：蒙英华[1] 黄建忠[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院,上海201620 [2]厦门大学,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《经济管理》2009年第11期26-31,共6页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：上海市教育委员会重点学科建设项目(第五期)"国际贸易"(J51702);2010年度上海市教育委员会科研创新项目"服务经济波动对中国宏观经济影响的效应研究"(10YZ194)

摘　　要：在经济危机(衰退)期间,服务贸易的波动要弱于货物贸易的波动(即弱周期性)。其中,又以教育服务贸易和商业、专业技术服务贸易为代表的其他私人服务贸易稳定性最强。为在经济危机(衰退)期间保持国际贸易的稳定,政府应发挥服务贸易的"弱周期性"特征,大力发展教育和商业、专业技术服务贸易,加大自然人跨国暂时流动的开放力度。We argue that trade in service represents weak-fluctuation feature during the economic crisis. And we try to qualify these effects through the H-P filter measure and US data during the last two economic crisis. It is found that the fluctuations of trade in service is smaller than trade in goods （refers as Weak-Business Cycle）, and the fluctuation of other private service is the smallest of all the service trade segment. In addition, education service and business, professional and technical services are steadier than trade in other private services. Then developing education and business, professional and technical services is a tool for keeping international trade stable during the economic crisis.

关 键 词：服务贸易 经济危机 弱周期性 波动 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]