组合预测在油气操作成本预测中的应用研究  

APPLICATION OF COMBINATION FORECASTING MODEL TO PREDICTING OIL AND GAS OPERATION COST

作　　者：周超[1] 王秀芝[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《天然气勘探与开发》2009年第4期78-80,共3页Natural Gas Exploration and Development

摘　　要：将组合预测法应用于油气操作成本的预测,用非线性回归模型和灰色模型加权组合建立组合预测模型,并通过平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差、均方误差和均方百分比误差等指标比较,证明组合模型比单一模型的预测效果更好,能提高油气操作成本预测的精度。Applying combination forecasting to predicting oil and gas operation cost is firstly to weightedly combine nonlinear regression model and grey model to establish a combination forecasting model,secondly to prove that the combination model is better than the single model in terms of forecasting through index comparison of mean ABSolute error,mean ABSolute percent error,mean square error and mean square percent error. Additionally,the combination model can increase a prediction accuracy of oil and gas operation cost.

关 键 词：油气操作成本 回归模型 灰色模型 组合预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F406.7F407.22