引入省际人口迁移因素的陕西省人口发展趋势预测  

The Population Projection of Shaanxi under the Introduction of Inter-provincial Migration Factors

作　　者：张冬敏[1] 雍岚[2] 林祖梅[3] 

机构地区：[1]西安工业大学经济管理学院,西安710021 [2]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,西安710049 [3]长安大学材料学院,西安710049

出　　处：《西北人口》2009年第6期31-36,共6页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：2008年陕西省社科基金项目"陕西省人口老龄化与养老保障需求的相关关系研究(08H001)"资助

摘　　要：20世纪80年代中期以来,由于政治、经济等多方面因素的变动,我国省际人口迁移规模急剧增长。省际人口迁移已成为影响区域人口发展趋势的重要因素之一。本文以陕西省为例,了解陕西省的省际迁移人口的规模大小和年龄分布特征,分析在引入省际人口迁移因素时,陕西省人口老龄化进程将如何变化。研究结果发现:陕西省迁入人口呈现年轻态特征,多为处于就业初期的年轻人口,减缓了陕西省人口老龄化速度。Since the mid-1980s of the 20th century, owing to the political, economic and other factors＇ change,China＇s rapid growth in the scale of inter-provincial migration. Inter-provincial Migration has become one of the important factors that can influence the process of aging of the population. Taking Shaanxi Province as the case, based on the population scale and age distribution of, this paper gave the analysis on how the process of aging of the population would change when inter-provincial migration factors were introduced. The author found that population of inter-provincial migration presented the features of juvenescence., Among which, many of the young population were in the initial period of employment so that the pace of population aging would be slowed down in Shaanxi Province.

关 键 词：人口迁移 省际人口迁移 人口预测 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]