东北冷涡南落型强对流天气的潜势预报分析  

Characteristic condition analysis for forecasting convective weather of upper cold falling vortex

作　　者：徐为进 吕冬红[1] 沈利峰[2] 刘方[1] 王海青[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省泰州市气象局,江苏泰州225300 [2]上海市气象局,上海200030

出　　处：《气象科学》2009年第5期618-624,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省气象局2004年重点项目"泰州市春秋季120小时内天气要素相似预报模式(200414)"

摘　　要：通过2005—2008年4—6月Micaps资料,查找500 hPa东北有冷涡,500 hPa和700 hPa江苏境内为大片的西北气流,当天午后到夜里出现强对流天气的若干典型个例,借助Micaps系统通过对一些个例的物理量资料分析,得出它们共同的发生强对流天气的机理;同时还分析得出诊断该类对流天气的不太适合使用的物理量和较适合使用的物理量;并分析个例的大气探空层结曲线,得出它们的对流层结与其它类型的区别,并剖析它们的一日转变情况;同时用Q矢量锋生函数方法分析,发现低层强锋生区域与强对流天气区域有较好的对应关系,锋生函数正值中心区域常出现个别站龙卷或大范围冰雹。Using Micaps material from April to June from 2005 to 2008 to choose a lot of examples with upper cold vortex in North China or Northeast of China, and over large area with northwest wind both at 500 hPa and at 700 hPa over Jiangsu Province, and with convective weather happened from afternoon to night. In order to know the mechanism of occurring heavy convective weather, the physical process analysis is done with the aid of Micaps 3.0. We can find the fit and unfit physical quantities of diagnosing the convective weather. We carried out case study of stratification curves and found out the difference in their convective stratifications from other types and analysed the change of observed soundings during a day. Based on Q vector frontogenesis function method , those typical examples were analyzed. Result shows that there is a good corresponding relationships between strong frontogenesis area and heavy convective weather area in low atmosphere, tornado or large area hail often happens in the frontogenesis function positive center area.

关 键 词：强对流天气 大范围冰雹 锋生函数 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]