高速公路路面温度极值预报模型研究  

Study on the numerical prediction model of extreme temperature on speedway-surface

作　　者：朱承瑛[1] 谢志清 严明良 景元书[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044 [2]江苏省气象科研所,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》2009年第5期645-650,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金(BK2005163);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2006M30)

摘　　要：应用地表热量平衡方程，在太阳短波辐射、大气和地面长波辐射、感热和潜热等参数化方案的基础上，提出一种用于预报高速公路路面温度极值的数值模型。并利用沪宁高速公路梅村站和仙人山站2006年7月8日-12月31日的逐分钟的各要素实测数据对模型的有效性进行验证，结果表明：模型的平均绝对误差为1．32℃，预报误差在±3℃以内的频率高达85．23％，且对冬季路面温度低于0℃时的预报误差基本在-1～0℃，可以运用于冬季高速公路路面溜滑的实际预报中。By using road energy balance method, considering the balance among solar short-wave radiation, atmospheric and ground long-wave radiations, latent heat fluxes and sensible heat fluxes, a forecasting model for speedway-surface temperature is established. The per-minute observation data of Meicun station and Xianrenshan station on Hu-Ning speedway from July 8,2006 to December 31,2006 have been used in the validation of the model, results show that the mean absolute error of the model is 1.32 ℃, the frequency of the forecasting error between - 3 ℃ and 3 ℃ is 85.23%, and the forecasting error is between - 1 ℃ and 0 ℃ when the speedway-surface temperature is below 0 ℃ in winter, which proves that the model is useful in the prediction of slippery speedway in winter.

关 键 词：路面温度 路面热量平衡 数值预报模型 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]