改革开放30年来中国农业生产总体评价及其预测模型的建立  

Overall Assessment and Its Forecast Model of Agricultural Development in the Past 30 Years of Reform and Opening up

作　　者：陈伟[1] 卢秀容[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学经管学院,广东湛江524025

出　　处：《广东海洋大学学报》2009年第5期50-56,共7页Journal of Guangdong Ocean University

摘　　要：采用近30年来的统计数据,对改革开放以来中国农业生产的总体趋势进行了分析描述,认为以农林牧渔业增加值(第一产业增加值)表示的农业生产水平总体上呈现上升趋势;通过对影响农业生产的因素运用因子分析法进行综合归纳,认为投入因子、土地面积因子以及价格因子是影响农业生产最主要的公共因子。最后运用投入因子、土地面积因子以及价格因子建立了中国农业生产总体情况的预测模型。According to statistical data of the past 30 years, this paper analyses and describes the overall trend of agricultural development and thinks that the trend of GDP of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery（GDP of primary industry） has been went up year by year. By the factor analysis method, it obtained that input factor, land area factor and price factor are the main factors which have an important effect on the change of GDP of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The last, this paper establishes a forecast model of agricultural development by input factor, land area factor and price factor.

关 键 词：因子分析法 农林牧渔业增加值 总体评价 预测模型 

分 类 号：F323.5[经济管理—产业经济]