基于概率模型的弹道导弹突防措施分析  

Analysis of Penetration Measures based on Probabilistic Model of Ballistic Missile Defense System

作　　者：吉莉[1] 陈磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学航天与材料工程学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2009年第11期98-101,共4页Fire Control & Command Control

摘　　要：从作战效率的角度,建立多层防御系统的概率模型,分析单层防御系统性能变化对整体的影响;建立目标毁伤概率模型,分析单个目标命中概率对单层防御系统性能的影响;建立单层防御系统的贝努利实验模型,分析识别能力和毁伤能力对系统效能的影响。通过这些简单的概率模型,反向分析探讨了针对分层防御系统的弹道导弹突防问题。In view of battle effectiveness, a probabilistic model of multi-level defense system is established to analyze the influence of single layer defense system＇s capability. A Bernoulli trial model of single layer defense system is established to analyze the influence of discrimination capability and kill capability on defence system＇s efficiency. Based on these simple probability models,the problem of ballistic missile penetration against layered defense system is discussed reversedly.

关 键 词：弹道导弹 概率模型 突防 

分 类 号：TJ761.3[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]