我国热轧板带市场预测研究——基于统计模型  

Research on Forcast of Hot-rolled Steel Strip Market Based on Statistical Model

作　　者：付艳[1] 张雁[1] 王彦[1] 董博浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中冶京诚工程技术有限公司,北京100076

出　　处：《技术经济》2009年第11期43-47,53,共6页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：十一五科技支撑计划项目(2006BAE03A07)

摘　　要：目标市场研究是产品定位的基础。本文运用统计模型和分析工具,对我国的钢材总需求以及热轧板带市场进行了定量预测分析。得出结论:通过回归分析可较准确地预测出未来2～3年我国钢材的消费量与产量;我国钢材总产量能够满足需求,但存在结构调整的需要,就热轧板而言,热轧薄板和热轧薄宽带钢的比例仍然较低。研究结论对新一代钢厂的产品定位具有理论指导意义及实用价值。The analysis and research on target market is the basis of product orientation. This paper uses the statistical models and the analytical tools to analyze and forcast China＇s total steel demand and the hot-rolled flat product market. It draws the conclusions as follows：the regression analysis can be used to forecast the production and the consumption of steel in 2 to 3 years accurately;the product capacity of steel in China can meet the demand, but the ratios of hot-rolled steel and hot-rolled wide steel remain low very much.

关 键 词：热轧板带 统计模型 预测方法 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F426.41