基于ACTS风速预测模型的变电架构灾变特性数值模拟  

Disaster Characteristics Numerical Simulation of Power Ttransformation Truss Based on the Asymptotic Wind Speed Changes in Time Series Prediction Model

作　　者：裴延学[1] 祝贺[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学建筑工程学院,吉林吉林132012

出　　处：《东北电力大学学报》2009年第4期55-59,共5页Journal of Northeast Electric Power University

基　　金：中国电力工程学会电力青年科技项目(200816);吉林省教育厅十一五重点科研项目(200751)

摘　　要：根据预测理论,提出了ACTS(渐近变动时间序列)风速预测模型,利用已有的风速数据预测了未来时段的风速数据,通过建立变电架构的三维数值模型,对架构进行了风速时程分析。研究了变电架构在预测风速下的动力时程响应特性,得到架构的各项动力响应指标,研究成果可为变电架构防风减灾提供参考。According to prediction theory, the asymptotic wind speed changes in time series prediction model is proposed. The future wind speed datas are predicted by using existing datas. In this paper, and the finite element model of the structure is established. The natural frequencies and mode shapes of the structure are obtained by wind speed time-history analysis. By analyzing the dynamic property of the structure, the rigidity feature and the weak link are found. The method in this paper has reference value in research of anti-wind.

关 键 词：渐近变动时间序列 风速预测 变电架构 灾变特性 时程分析 

分 类 号：TM753[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]