天津市社会经济与水资源发展协同预警研究  

Synergistic effect of social economy and water resources development in Tianjin

作　　者：孙镟[1] 刘玲基[1] 居娴[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2009年第6期81-84,89,共5页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金(07EYC059)

摘　　要：采用模糊综合评判法对天津市1992-2007年的社会经济与水资源发展的协同情况进行评价,预测2008-2010年的协同趋势,并对协同趋势做出预警。模糊综合评判法中涉及的权重问题采用离差最大化法确定。研究发现,天津市社会经济与水资源发展的协同度在1999年前总体呈现上升态势,之后协同度在总体上显示出下降趋势,2007-2010年已经亮起预警危险信号,整个社会经济与水资源的协同发展很不理想,水资源短缺已经成为系统协调的重要障碍,而南水北调工程的新增水量在未来一段相当长的时期内可以缓解天津市缺水的压力。The collaborative development of the social economy and water resources in Tianjin from 1992 to 2007 was assessed with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and collaboration trend prediction and early warnings were also made.The weight problem involved in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was determined with the maximizing deviation method.It was found that,before 1999,the synergy degree was overall upward,but after that,it showed a general downward trend.From 2007 to 2010,the collaborative development of the social economy and water resources was poor and flashed early warning danger signals. The shortage of water resources became a major obstacle to the collaboration system. The additional water from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project will relieve the water shortage and improve the synergy degree of Tianjin in the future.

关 键 词：离差最大化法 协同度 协同预警 天津市 社会经济 水资源 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]