中国订单农业违约风险因素评估——来自山东的经验  

Risk Factor Analysis of Contract Breach of China's Ordering Agriculture:Evidence from Shandong Province

作　　者：杨明洪[1] 李彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2009年第12期107-116,共10页Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目;国家自然科学基金项目(70473060)阶段成果

摘　　要：目前高违约率严重制约了订单农业的发展,如何防范违约风险成为风险管理的关键内容。风险评估的目的在于分析各风险因素对违约风险的影响程度,为制定风险防范措施提供依据。本文结合山东的实际,采取AHP分析方法,从公司、农户、契约和外部市场四个层面,建立了一个包含26项指标的评估指标体系,并构建风险评估模型,以评估风险因素。The recent high rate of contract breach has severely restricted the development of ordering agriculture. How to avert contract breach risk is the kernel of risk management. Risk assessment aims at the analysis of influence of various risk factors on contract breach risk in order to pave the way for formulating risk aversion measures. This paper collects data h-om Shandong Province and adopts AHP method to establish a 26- item assessing system and construct a risk assessing model to assess risk factors in terms of company, farmer, contract and external market.

关 键 词：订单农业 违约风险 风险因素 模糊层次分析法 

分 类 号：F323.5[经济管理—产业经济] F224