东亚经济体大规模囤积外汇储备现象:影响因素、行为特征及政策含义  

East Asian Economies Hoarding Large Scale of Foreign Reserves:Influencing Factors,Behavior and Policy Implication

作　　者：杨权[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,361002

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2009年第12期47-56,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部社科规划青年项目"东亚外汇储备库研究--以互利共赢理念探索区域合作的实现形式和中国战略"(项目号:08JC790087)的阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：近年来,东亚经济体超额累积外汇储备现象用传统的衡量外汇储备水平的经验法则已无法解释。本文在分析东亚经济体外汇储备持续累积行为的影响因素的同时,试图区分东亚经济体不同类别国家之间的差异。面板数据回归分析的结果表明:东亚发展中经济体表现出为防范实体经济和金融领域风险的较强的谨慎动机,东亚相对发达经济体则主要是对规模和交易需求的反应,并没有表现出明显的谨慎动机倾向;东亚发展中经济体的外汇储备累积与汇率制度的灵活性进一步增强相联系,而东亚相对发达经济体的外汇储备累积与其外汇市场干预和汇率波幅收窄相联系,东亚经济体的外汇储备累积行为并不能用重商主义动机进行解释。东亚经济体外汇储备超额累积现象凸显出加快推进区域货币和金融合作的重要性。In recent years, East Asian economies are accumulating excessive foreign reserves. This phenomenon can＇t be well explained by the rule of thumb, which is used to measure the reasonable level of a country＇s foreign reserves traditionally. This paper tries to distinguish the differences between different kinds of East Asian economies when analyzing their behavior of hoarding foreign reserves. The results of regression analysis using panel data is： those developing economies in East Asian can be explained by the precautionary motive, and those relatively developed economies do not demonstrate the precautionary motive obviously. The developing economies accumulated foreign reserves while their exchange rate turned to be more flexible, and the developed economies accumulated foreign reserves while their exchange rate volatility became narrowing. The behavior of East Asian economies as a whole can＇t be explained by the mercantilism motive. Large foreign reserves hoarding in East Asian economies highlights the importance of regional monetary and financial cooperation.

关 键 词：外汇储备 影响因素 东亚 

分 类 号：F823.13[经济管理—财政学] F832.63