四川农业经济动态变化过程与发展惯性  

Quality Changes and Developing Inertia of Agriculture Economy in Sichuan Province

作　　者：冉清红[1,2] 岳云华[1] 谢德体[2] 魏朝富[2] 屈波[1] 

机构地区：[1]绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,四川绵阳621000 [2]西南大学资源环境学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2009年第23期508-515,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题"沿三峡水库(重大工程区)农业面源污染防控与综合治理技术研究"之"水田生态系统拦截和消纳农业面源污染物关键技术研究与示范"(2007BAD87B10)

摘　　要：随着四川农业经济结构调整和市场化推进,分析农业结构调整效果和竞争力变化,对评价四川农业经济增长质量动态变化过程和预测发展趋势有重要意义。运用份额-偏离分析模型和效果指数法研究四川农业经济在1998—2007年的动态变化过程,运用G(1,1)灰色数列模型方法探究2009—2012年的变化趋势。结果表明:在研究期内的9个时段中,结构增量>0、结构效果指数>1的年份占5年,竞争力增量>0、竞争效果指数>1的年份数占7年,结构增量/效果、竞争力增量/效果"双优"的年份数占4年,"双差"占1年;2009—2012年的结构效果指数和竞争效果指数大于0且逐年增加。基本结论是:四川农业经济结构性和竞争性问题在研究期不是常年存在、不一定具有同发性,影响结构调整与竞争力的关键部门是种植业和牧业;2012年前的农业经济结构和竞争力呈逐年增强变动。The purpose of analyzing the dynamic changes of agricultural economic growth in recent decade in Sichuan Province was to understand the improvement of agricultural structure and competitiveness. In order to analyze quantitatively the dynamic change of the agricultural structure, the course of agricultural structure change was divided into eight periods from 1998 to 2007. The reference area component, the industry mix and the differential （regional） shift were calculated by Shift-share Method according to the agricultural data in re- cent decade in Sichuan Province and in China. The effect indexes of agricultural economic structure and region- al competition were predicted by Gray model G （1, 1） from 2009 to 2012. This result has showed that there are five years with the structure increment above 0 and structure effect index over 1, seven years characterized by the competition increment above 0 and competition effect index over 1 in nine periods of investigated time. the development of agriculture in four good years were characterized by both the structure increment above 0 and structure effect index over 1 and the competition increment above 0 and competition effect index over 1, and one year was worse in terms of the structure and competition increment or effect. There are more and more years with the structure and competition effect index above 0 from 2009 to 2012. The basic conclusion is that the problem of agricultural economy structure and competitiveness was not perennial in Sichuan in the study period, it was impossible to have the same onset. The farming and animal husbandry were the key sectors im- pacted with structural adjustment and competitiveness. Before 2012 the economic structure of agriculture and competitiveness were the dynamic change in Sichuan Province from year to year. Therefore, the sectors both planting and stockbreeding were of importance that needed to adjust so as to improve the agricultural structure and competitiveness in Sichuan Province in future.

关 键 词：农业经济 结构效果 竞争效果 发展趋势 四川 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]