气温和相对湿度与太原市麻疹发病的相关性分析  

The Relationship between Measles Incidence and Climate Change in Taiyuan

作　　者：郝福华[1] 薛小平[1] 张志琴[1] 张燕萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原市疾病预防控制中心,山西太原030001

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2009年第11期1071-1073,共3页Preventive Medicine Tribune

摘　　要：[目的]探讨太原市气候变化对麻疹流行的影响。[方法]采用Spearman相关性分析和Poisson回归模型分析太原市1994～2006年每月麻疹发病数与月平均温度、相对湿度的相关性。[结果]Spearman相关性分析结果,麻疹发病数与前1个月、前2个月的平均气温呈中度正相关(r=0.37、0.55,P<0.01),与当月的平均相对湿度呈中度负相关(r=-0.42,P<0.01);Poisson回归分析得出较一致结论,表明,麻疹发病数与前2个月的平均气温呈正相关(β=0.93,P=0.01),与当月的平均相对湿度呈负相关(β=-1.95,P=0.01)。[结论]当月的相对湿度和前2个月的平均气温对麻疹发病具有明显的影响。[Objective]To investigate the impact of climate change on the measles incidence in Taiyuan. [Methods] Spearman correlation and Poisson regression model were used to analyze the relationship between the measles monthly cases and climate change（including monthly temperature and relative humidity） during 1994-2006 in Taiyuan city. [Results] Spearman correlation showed that the measles monthly cases was moderately negative correlated with the same month humidity（ r =-0.42, P d0.01） ,and were moderately positive correlated with the lagged 1 month and the lagged 2 month temperature,the correlation eoefficient were 0.37 and 0.55 （ P〈0.01 ）, respectively. The Poisson regression model showed the consistent results. [Conclusion]Climate change on the incidence of measles have significant impact and they can be better predict factors.

关 键 词：麻疹 气温 相对湿度 相关性 

分 类 号：R511.1[医药卫生—内科学]