金竹山土朱煤矿开采地表沉降规律与灰色预测模型研究  

Study on Surface Subsidence Laws of Tuzhu Coal Mine of Jinzhushan and Its Grey Predication Model

作　　者：罗文柯[1,2,3] 施式亮[1,2,3] 谢东海[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,长沙410083 [2]煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室,湘潭411201 [3]湖南科技大学能源与安全工程学院,湘潭411201

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2009年第10期52-58,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(50774033);国家安全生产监督管理总局安全生产科技发展计划项目(08-203;HN08-19;06-394);教育部科学技术研究项目(206100);湖南省自然科学基金资助(06JJ2069);湖南省教育厅资助科研项目(05A013);湖南省教育科学"十一五"规划课题(XJY08BGD027)

摘　　要：针对金竹山矿业公司土朱煤矿煤层赋存条件,依据采动理论的裂缝垂直分带模型,分析地表沉降和塌陷的机理;提出在采煤活动阶段应进行地表实际位移观测,经数据处理后得到地面沉降曲线,以确保地面人类活动的安全;在采煤活动后阶段则实施灰色预测地面沉降,即通过采煤活动阶段的地表实际观测数据为历史原始数据序列,建立灰色Logistic模型;并对采煤活动后阶段的地面沉降进行预测。精度检验表明:灰色Logistic模型预测精度高,利用该模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费和实时提供预警信息,以确保开采区域内人们生命财产安全。On the basis of the soil conditions in Tuzhu Coal Mine of Jinzhushan Mining Company, the mechanism of surface subsidence and collapse was analyzed according to the vertical zoning model of fissures in mining theory. It is proposed that, to ensure the safety of human activities on ground, the actual displacement of surface in the mining phase should be observed, and the surface subsidence curve should be obtained through processing these observing data. In the late stage of mining, the surface subsidence is predicted based on grey model, that is, with the actual observation data of the surface as the original history data sequence, the grey Logistic model is built and the surface subsidence is predicted. The test results show that the prediction precision for this grey Logistic model is high. This model can reduce the outlay of surface subsidence monitoring and provide real-time warning information, so as to ensure the security of people and properties in exploitation regions.

关 键 词：地面沉降 灰色预测 模型 预测精度 煤矿 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]