从货币政策规则看中国适度宽松货币政策的适时退出  

On the Exit of Easing Money Policy in View of Monetary Policy Rules

作　　者：邢毓静[1] 朱元倩[2] 巴曙松[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行,北京100800 [2]中国科学技术大学,安徽合肥230026 [3]国务院发展研究中心,北京100010

出　　处：《金融研究》2009年第11期49-59,共11页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文分析介绍了货币政策规则中McCallum规则和Taylor规则的原式,并分别利用1997年第一季度至2009年第二季度的55组季度数据和2004年第三季度至2009年第二季度的20组季度数据对规则中计算出的货币供应应有值与真实值进行了比较,基于对2009年三季度、四季度和2010年第一季度的宏观经济预测,为货币政策走向和通胀预期下利率的选择给出方向上的参考。This paper compared the difference between the real value and the theoretical value of the money supply which is computed by the original equality of the McCallum rule and the Taylor rule. The paper uses fiftyfive seasonal data from the first season of 1997 to the second season of 2009 to simulate the value of McCallum rule, while the different starting point, which is the second season of 2004, is chosen in the process of simula- ting the Taylor rule. Based on the forecasting of the macroeconomic situation and the simulation of these two rules, the paper gives the guide about how to choose the exit time of the Easing Money Policy and the suitable interest policy.

关 键 词：货币政策 TAYLOR规则 McCallum规则 相机抉择 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]