中国货币服务指数的构建和经验检验  

The Construction and Empirical Test of Monetary Service Index in China

作　　者：左柏云[1] 付明卫[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院,广东广州510320 [2]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《金融研究》2009年第11期74-90,共17页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：货币服务指数度量经济中执行交易媒介职能货币的总量。本文构造了我国1997年1季度至2008年4季度的货币服务指数。与已有构造方案相比,我们的方案有三个主要创新。根据构造出来的数据进行的分析表明,我国2004年的经济过热和2007～2008年较高的通货膨胀率都与经济中的货币服务过多直接相关。经验分析表明,预期通货膨胀率确实不是中国货币需求函数的机会成本变量;狭义货币服务指数和狭义简单相加货币总量的表现都不好,但广义货币服务指数的表现要比广义简单相加货币总量好。在样本期内,我国的广义简单相加货币总量的短期需求函数确实是不稳定的,但广义货币服务指数的短期需求函数却是稳定的。这些结论为我国用广义货币服务指数作为货币政策中介目标提供了一定的理论依据。Monetary Service Index measures the basic role of money as medium of exchange. This paper constructs the Monetary Service Index from spring of 1997 to winter of 2008 for China. Compared with existent constructing plans, there are three innovations in the plan. Based on analysis with constructed data, the authors suggest that both the ＂heated economy＂ during 2004 and the high inflation rate during 2007 and 2008 are directly related to excessive monetary service in China＇s economy. Moreover, empirical analysis also shows that expected inflation rate is indeed not the opportunity cost variable of money demand function in China, both narrow Monetary Service Index and narrow simple-summed aggregate perform badly, but broad Monetary Service Index outperform its counterpart. During the sample period, the short-run dynamic demand function of broad simple-summed aggregate is indeed unstable, but its counterpart of Monetary Service Index is surprisingly stable. These conclusions imply that broad Monetary Service Index is a good alternative as a monetary policy inter- mediate target.

关 键 词：货币服务指数 Divisia货币总量 货币需求函数 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0