实物期权理论在能源技术经济评价中的应用  

Application of Real Option Theory in Energy Techno-Economic Evaluation

作　　者：洪丽云[1] 朱兵[1] 周文戟[1] 贺业方[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学化学工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《化学工业》2009年第11期27-30,35,共5页Chemical Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(20876087);863重点项目(2008AA062301)

摘　　要：总结了不确定条件下技术经济评价理论,即实物期权理论在能源技术投资评价方面的应用情况。按照应对气候变化的三条主要能源技术路线,即发展新能源、节能、碳捕集封存三个领域对实物期权理论的应用进行了综述。The facts of global wanning and financial crisis increase uncertainty faced by investing in energy technology. Much of recent attention from worldwide researchers has been paid to decision-making process of energy technology under an uncertain environment This article reviews the application of uncertain investment theory, i.e., real option theory in energy techno-economic evaluation, from the perspective of three main energy technological routes for climate mitigation, that is, new energy, energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage （CCS）. As the international concern of global wanning and the inherent risk of global economy are rising, it would be increasingly important to evaluate economics of these technologies under such a background. Hence real options theory is expected to perform more and more widespread use.

关 键 词：实物期权 技术经济评价 能源 投资 气候变暖 金融危机 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]