基于随机过程的航空发动机性能可靠性预测  

Performance Reliability Evaluation for Aviation Engines Based on Stochastic Process

作　　者：胡昊磊[1] 左洪福[1] 任淑红[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《科技信息》2009年第29期I0017-I0018,共2页Science & Technology Information

基　　金：国家自然基金委员会与中国民用航空总局联合资助项目(编号:60672164);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(编号:2006AA04Z427)

摘　　要：本文以民用航空发动机为研究对象,运用性能退化可靠性理论和随机过程方法,对发动机的可靠性进行了研究。文中首先通过分析发动机性能退化过程,运用威布尔分布建立了基于随机过程的可靠性模型,然后利用模型得到整个机队的可靠性规律以及平均寿命,最后,通过实例验证了方法的有效性,所得平均寿命也与工程实际相符合,为航空公司进行下发预测以及维修规划提供了科学依据。This paper makes study of the civil aviation airqraft engine. The reliability of the engine has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and stochastic process methods. First, through analyzing the performance degradation process of the engine, the reliability model is built by using Weihull distribution. Then, we received the reliability of the entire fleet as well as life expectancy. The last, we apply these models to practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible, and the life expectancy is in agreement with the engineering well. Also, it provides the scientific foundation of the prediction of engine＇s removing and maintenance planning for airlines.

关 键 词：可靠性 平均寿命 性能衰退 威布尔分布 

分 类 号：O211.6[理学—概率论与数理统计] V23[理学—数学]