洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架  

Theoretical analysis frame based on general entropy and intelligence integration methodology for flood disaster risk management

作　　者：金菊良[1,2] 王银堂[3] 魏一鸣[4] 王宗志[3] 刘克琳[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [2]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [3]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [4]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《水科学进展》2009年第6期894-900,共7页Advances in Water Science

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB14B02);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70771035 ; 70733005);中国气象局成都高原气象实验室基金资助项目(LPM2008018)~~

摘　　要：基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。Based on the background analysis of flood disaster risk management research, the theories of general distribution function and its entropy can be used to effectively describe and analyze the uncertainty information of flood disaster risk man- agement system. Based on the mechanism of producing flood disaster risk and the integration methodology of risk management theory, water conservancy science, information science and intelligence science theories, the theoretical frame and its main contents of the comprehensive analysis theory based on general entropy and intelligence integration methodology for flood disas- ter risk management are presented, which consists of flood hazard analysis based on the general entropy and intelligence inte- gration methodology, flood disaster vulnerability analysis based on the general entropy and intelligence integration methodology, flood disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on general entropy and intelligence integration methodology, and flood disaster risk decision-making analysis based on the general entropy and the intelligence integration methodology. The frame can also be applied to risk management of other disasters.

关 键 词：洪水灾害 风险管理 广义熵智能分析 理论框架 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] G353.11[文化科学—情报学]