基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的江苏入境旅游需求变化对地区经济的影响分析  

An Analysis of the Impact of the Demand Changes of Jiangsu Inbound Tourism on Regional Economy Based on Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)

作　　者：黎洁[1] 韩飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2009年第12期23-30,共8页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"基于旅游卫星账户及相关扩展分析方法的我国旅游业可持续发展研究"(08BJY124)

摘　　要：本文依据江苏2002年旅游活动社会核算矩阵,构建了一个省级双区域静态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,模型包括了5个与旅游活动密切相关的产业和第一产业、第二产业、其他第三产业共8个产业、外省与国外两个外部区域,并根据CGE模型的一般优化假设,设计了5类方程模块,分别是生产模块、收入与支出模块、贸易模块、投资与资本积累模块、宏观闭合与均衡模块,进而对入境旅游需求变化对江苏省地区经济产生的影响进行了全面的定量分析。分析得出:当入境旅游需求分别增长10%、20%、30%时,江苏省地区生产总值在当年10388.31亿元的基础上会增长0.114%、0.231%、0.353%,即入境游客消费每增长1元,地区生产总值分别增长1.36元1、.38元1、.41元,江苏省的社会福利(用等价变化计算)将分别增加0.749、0.763、0.778元等。In accordance with the tourism SAM of Jiangsu Province in 2002, the paper constructs a provincial static dual region CGE model, which consists of 5 tourism related industries and other 3 industries as well as 2 external areas including other provinces and foreign countries. In the light of general optimal assumption of CGE model, we design five categories of equation modules. They are production, income and expenditure, trade, investment and capital accumulation, macro enclosure modules respectively. Furthermore, we make an overall quantitative analysis of the impact of the demand changes of Jiangsu inbound tourism on regional economy. The analysis indicates that when the inbound tourism demand increases by 10% ,20% and 30% , the GDP of the province will increase by 0.114%, 0.231% and 0.353% based on 1038.831 billion yuan. It means that the GDP will increase by 1.36 yuan, 1.38 yuan and 1.41 yuan respectively with one yuan consumptive increase of every inbound tourist. And social welfare of Jiangsu Province will increase by 0.749, 0.763 and 0.778 respectively.

关 键 词：可计算一般均衡模型(CGE) 入境旅游需求 地区生产总值 等价变化(EV) 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F127[经济管理—产业经济] F224