一次辽宁暴雪预报偏差原因分析  

Deviation Analysis of a Heavy Snow Process Forecasting in Liaoning

作　　者：李雅南[1] 王太微[1] 陆井龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象台,辽宁沈阳110015

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第34期17267-17271,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用常规气象资料,从天气形势、数值预报、雷达回波分析2009年2月19～20日辽宁地区降雪天气过程的强度和落区的差异及原因分析。结果表明,这次降雪是受东移冷空气和蒙古气旋的共同影响造成的,落区、强度与实况的差异原因,主要由于数值预报形势场预报偏强和地形增幅造成的。Based on the conventional meteorological data, the deviation of snow strength and drop zone forecasting were analyzed from the aspects of weather situation, numerical prediction and radar echo on 19-20 th, February 2009 in Liaoning Province. The results showed that the eastward movement of cold air and the Mongolian cyclone caused the snow. The forecasting deviation was caused by the stronger circulation pattern of numerical prediction and increasing terrain.

关 键 词：冷空气 蒙古气旋 零速度线 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]