气候系统模式MIROC对中国降水和地面风场日变化的模拟  

Diurnal variations of precipitation and circulation simulated by model for interdisciplinary research on climate

作　　者：王东阡[1] 张耀存[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第6期724-733,共10页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806006)

摘　　要：本文利用日本东京大学气候系统研究中心、日本环境研究所和日本地球环境研究中心联合开发的MIROC 3.2气候系统模式模拟的当前情况下(以1991-1995年为代表)和全球增暖情景(A1B假设)下(以2091-2095年为代表)3小时平均降水和地面风场资料,检验模式对中国地区降水和青藏高原、中国东部沿海等地区地面风场日变化模拟能力并分析全球增暖情景下日变化与20世纪末的差异.结果表明:模式对中国地区降水日变化有较好的模拟能力,模拟的青藏高原东侧最大降水出现在午夜,南部沿海地区最大降水出现在晚上,东北地区降水最大值出现在下午等日变化特征与观测资料基本一致,对青藏高原大地形山谷风和东部沿海地区海陆风日循环也有较好的模拟,但对江淮流域夏季降水日循环上午和傍晚双峰结构的模拟与观测差异较大.全球增暖情景下,中国大部分地区日降水总量增大,但各时刻降水占日总降水比例改变很小,青藏高原、东部沿海等地区各个时刻差值风场风向角明显改变,风速差异增加.The simulated results are used to evaluate the model performance in simulating the diurnal variations of precipitation and circulation by a coupled climate model MIROC （Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate）, Version 3.2, which was developed cooperatively by CCSR （Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo）, NIES （National Institute for Environmental Studies）, and FRCGC （Frontier Research Center for Global Change） of Japan. Analyses of 3-hour mean precipitation and surface wind field of current condition （1991--1995） and global warming condition （2091--2095） show that the MIROC can well simulate the diurnal variations of precipitation over contiguous China and surface wind field over the Tibetan plateau and the coastal area of East China. The midnight maximum along the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau, the nocturnal maximum near the coastal area of South China and the late afternoon maximum precipitation over Northeast China are well captured by the MIROC. The model can also simulate diurnal cycle of mountain-valley wind over the Tibetan plateau and land- sea breeze over the coastal area of East China. However, the double-peak structure in diurnal variations of precipitation over the region between the Yangtze and Yellow River is not well simulated by MIROC. Under the greenhouse warming, the model results show an increase both in daily rainfall over contiguous China and in windvelocity and wind-direction of summer surface wind anomaly over the Tibetan plateau and the coastal area of East China.

关 键 词：日变化 降水 模拟 全球增暖 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]