工业园区污染源预测方法研究  

Study of Pollution Sources Prediction Methods for Industrial Park

作　　者：吴官胜[1] 仝纪龙[2] 李发荣[2] 袁九毅[2] 刘菊梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学环境质量评价研究中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2009年第B12期352-355,369,共5页Environmental Science & Technology

摘　　要：工业园区拟引进的工业企业存在不确定性。而且不同行业的工业污染源差异很大，导致污染源预测难度较大，也影响环境影响预测的准确性和防治对策措施的可靠性。作者从工业园区发展规模预测、资源需求规模预测以及污染物排放规模预测三个方面介绍了工业园区污染源常用预测方法，主观预测法有类比法和专业判断法，客观预测法有投入产出法、灰色系统理论法、神经网络法、部门分析法、线性回归法、弹性系数法、产排污系数法、环境数学模型法、情景分析法、层次分析法、系统动力学法等，作者对以上方法的优缺点和适用性进行了对比分析。最后以西北某工业园区为例进行了污染源预测案例分析，在案例中主要采用了产排污系数法以及类比法。以上研究对工业园区区域环境影响评价中的污染源预测具有一定的参考价值。The industrial enterprises which will be introduced in the industrial park are uncertain, and industrial pollution sources vary significantly in different sectors. As a result, the prediction of pollution resource appears to be difficult, and the accuracy of environmental impact prediction and reliability of control measures are influenced. In this paper, from developing scale, resource demanding, pollutant discharge in three aspects of prediction, the common prediction methods of pollution source in industrial park were discussed. The subjective prediction methods contain analogy method and proffessional judgement method; the objective mthods include input--output method, gray system theory method, netural network method, sector analysis method, linear regression method, elastic coefficient method, coefficient method of pollutant yield-- discharge, method of environment mathematical model, scenario analysis, AHP, system dynamics method ect. Then, the advantages and disadvantages of different prediction methods and their applicability were analyzed. Finally, an industrial park in northwestern China was taken as a case study on pollution sources prediction. In the case, coefficient method of pollutant yield--discharge and analogy method were adopted. Tile study provides the predicting of pollution source of regional environmental impact assessment of industrial park with some reference value.

关 键 词：工业园区 区域环境影响评价 污染源预测 预测方法 案例研究 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]