基于MAS的农户土地利用模型构建与模拟——以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例  

Simulation and Application of Household's LUCC Based on a Multi-Agent System:A Case Study for Mengcha Village of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province

作　　者：陈海[1,2] 王涛[1] 梁小英[1] 高海东[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与资源学系,西安710069 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《地理学报》2009年第12期1448-1456,共9页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40601005);国家重点基础研究发展规划(973项目)(G2000018607);陕西省文化产业研究院项目(ks07111oky23)~~

摘　　要：Multi-Agent System(简称MAS)给进行多主体参与的LUCC研究提供一个概念性框架。本文试图通过对多主体决策的模拟,来探讨MAS在微观层面土地利用变化过程中的应用,揭示农户土地利用决策变化的机制。首先,简要说明MAS在土地利用变化模拟中的研究进展和背景;然后,基于B、D、I的决策结构,建立基于MAS的农户土地利用框架;再次,以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例进行研究;最后,探讨了MAS模型在微观层面模拟LUCC的潜力与不足。研究表明:①利用可清晰地表达决策产生过程的B、D、I决策框架,构建微观个体(农户)的土地利用决策模型;②利用连续函数,构建同类农户间的相互作用模型;③构建市场对农户决策的影响模型,定量分析市场对农户最终土地利用决策的影响,厘定市场、同类农户间相互作用对其土地利用决策的影响;④构建的基于MAS的农户土地利用决策模型为从微观视角研究土地利用变化提供了新的方法,同时,也为进一步探索宏观土地利用变化与微观土地利用决策间的互动机理积累理论与实践的经验。还需要进一步研究和探讨的问题包括:①决策的尺度变化问题,即单个农户决策与群体农户决策之间的转化问题;②探索在更长时间里进行农户土地利用决策研究的方法,以期在大量的土地利用资料与有限时间决策之间找到沟通的桥梁;③进一步探讨不同农户间相互作用的定量方法和模型,充实农户间相互作用的研究。Multi-Agent Systems（MAS） offer a conceptual approach to include multi-actor decision making into models of land use change.Through the simulation based on the MAS, this paper tries to show the application of MAS in the micro scale LUCC.This paper starts with a description of the context of MAS research.Then, based on the BDI（belief, desire, intention） decision-making architecture, it provides a model for the household decision-making.Based upon this framework, Section 4 reports a case study for Mengcha Village of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province.Section 5 gives the simulated LUCC of 2008, and verifies the result.Section 6 discusses the potentials and drawbacks of the following approach.From our design and implementation of the MAS in a micro scale model, a number of observations and conclusions can be drawn on the implementation and future research directions.（1） The use of BDI decision-making to represent individual households provides a more realistic modeling of the making-decision process.（2） The use of continuous function, not discrete function, which constructs the interaction among households, is more realistic to reflect the effect.（3） This paper attempts to give a quantitative method to analyze the household interaction.And it provides the premise and foundation for researching the communication and learning.（4） The BDI decision-making architecture constructed in this paper helps to accumulate theoretical and practical experience for the interaction research between the micro land use decision-making and the macro land use landscape.Our future research work will focus on the following aspects.（1） The scale issues should be paid attention to the transformation of the household land use decision-making to the collective decision-making.（2） The methods should be explored on the researches into the household decision-making in a longer period of time, so as to build the bridge between long-term LUCC data and short-term household making-decision.（3） The quantitative method

关 键 词：MAS BDI决策框架 农户 决策模型 陕西省米脂县 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] F224