养殖锯缘青蟹黄水病流行病学及其预报模型  

The Forcast Model of Yellow Water Disease in Mud Crab Scylla serrata

作　　者：冯振飞[1] 王国良[2] 倪海儿[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大学生命科学与生物工程学院,浙江宁波315211 [2]宁波大学医学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《水产科学》2009年第12期713-716,共4页Fisheries Science

基　　金：浙江省科技厅重大攻关项目(2005C12038);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(Y305189)

摘　　要：依据浙江三门县青蟹养殖基地青蟹黄水病发生及流行的定点观测资料和环境因子检测数据,对青蟹发病与养殖环境因子的关系进行了分析研究,找出3个显著影响青蟹黄水病发生与流行的环境因子,即盐度变化、降雨量和弧菌数量。在此基础上,用多元统计方法对黄水病的预报模型进行了研究,建立了三门县青蟹养殖基地的青蟹黄水病预报模型,^Y=-0.088+0.00026TV+7.179SC。检验表明,该模型具较高拟合度,可以用来测报黄水病发病率。It is very important to forecast yellow water disease leading to mass loss of mud crab Scylla setrata in culture ponds. According to the data Collected by monitoring station during the occurrence and spread of the disease, the survey of the correlation between the yellow water disease morbidity in the mud crab and culture environment factors revealed that there were three environment factors affecting the epidemic of the disease：rainfall, quantity of Vibrio and salinity change. With these important environment factors successfully set up one muhiple linear regression forecasting model, Y =- 0. 088 ＋ 0. 00026 TV ＋ 7. 179 SC. And this forecasting model is tested by Fvalue with good results, so it can be applied to forecast the morbidity of mud crab caused by the yellow water disease.

关 键 词：锯缘青蟹 黄水病 流行病学 相关分析 预报模型 

分 类 号：S945[农业科学—水产养殖]