基于熵的干线公路通车里程组合预测  

Arterial Highway Traffic Mileage Combining Forecasts Based on Entropy

作　　者：赵山春[1] 牛惠民[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2010年第1期25-27,共3页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

摘　　要：干线公路通车里程预测是干线公路网规划的主要内容之一。以甘肃省1997～2007年干线公路通车里程为基础数据,分别采用回归分析法和灰色预测法进行拟合预测,鉴于单项预测方法的局限性,建立基于熵权法的组合预测模型,通过相关误差指标分析表明该组合模型能够提高预测精度,具有较强的理论与实际应用价值。Forecasting the arterial highway traffic mileage is one of the arterial highway network planning. According to the data from 1997 to 2007, regression analysis and grey forecasting methods are used to forecast separately. For the limitation of each forecasting method, a combination forecasting model based on entropy is built. Through the relevant error index analysis, it shows that this model could improve the precision and has better value of theoretical and practical application.

关 键 词：甘肃省 干线公路 通车里程 熵 组合预测 

分 类 号：U412.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]