基于码头作业形态的港区道路交通需求预测  

Traffic demand forecasting model for large port based on terminal operation situation

作　　者：杨忠振[1] 陈刚[1] 陈康[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2009年第4期35-38,42,共5页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50278011)

摘　　要：为合理制订大型港口道路交通规划与管理措施,采用概率分布拟合方法分析实地调查数据,求出不同类型码头作业所诱发交通流的时间分布特征,利用统计量法和图示法对其进行拟合优度检验,并根据上述概率分布建立基于码头作业形态的港区道路交通专用需求预测模型.该模型应用于天津港北疆综合港区的结果表明,该模型具有较好的可行性及有效性.To plan the road traffic planning and management measure reasonably for large ports, The truck arrival time distributions of different cargo operations were calculated from real traffic data in port area by probability distribution fitting method and then tested by some statistic and graphic methods. A cargo - category-based dedicated port traffic demand forecasting model according to the terminal operation situation was established and applied to the actual road traffic management design of North districts of Tianjin port. Application result shows that the proposed model has better feasibility and validity.

关 键 词：港口 交通需求预测 货物类别 车辆到达概率分布 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]