重庆市都市圈水资源承载力分析与预测  

The analysis and prediction of water resource carrying capacity in Chongqing Metropolitan,China

作　　者：黎明[1,2] 李百战[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400715 [2]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [3]重庆大学城市建设与环境工程学院,重庆400045

出　　处：《生态学报》2009年第12期6499-6505,共7页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重点项目资助(2006BAJ02A09)

摘　　要：重庆市都市圈目前处于快速城市化的历史阶段,水资源是决定该地区社会经济发展规模及能否得以实现可持续发展的关键因素之一。运用区域水资源的供需平衡模型,预测了重庆市都市圈2020年的水资源承载力。研究表明,至2020年,该区域水资源承载力在880万～1400万人之间,短时期内不会成为社会经济发展的主要限制因素,但在全球气候和区域生态环境变化的影响下,水资源可利用总量的变化对于承载力有较大的影响;过境水可利用量是影响重庆市都市圈水资源承载力的最为重要的因素,因此上游区域生态环境的变化对该区域水资源承载力具有极为重要的影响,并为重庆市都市圈社会经济可持续发展的水资源保障提出了具体建议。The fast urbanization in Chongqing metropolitan has had a great impact on the environment and resources. The water resource has been recognized as one of the key elements to the sustainable development of this region. This paper presents a method of predicting the regional Water Resource Carrying Capacity （WRCC） using the supply-demand balance model. The method predicts that the WRCC of Chongqing metropolitan is from 8.8 million persons to 14 million persons in 2020 and it will not become the bottleneck of the social and economic development of Chongqing Metropolitan in the coming period of time. However the climate change and its impact on the regional ecology will have an effect on it. The results show that the usable capacity of Passing-by water is the most important element of the WRCC of Chongqing metropolitan therefore the protection of the ecological environment in the upstream area is very important. This paper has proposed tangible advice on the sustainable social and economic development in context of water resource.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 可持续发展 城市化 重庆市都市圈 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]