运用德尔菲法预测期刊特色栏目——以《武警医学》救援医学栏目为例  

Application of Delphi method in forecasting of the featuring columns in journals

作　　者：李小萍[1] 尤伟杰[1] 郭青[1] 张萍[1] 梁秋野[1] 岳建华[1] 武建虎[1] 

机构地区：[1]<武警医学>编辑部,北京100039

出　　处：《编辑学报》2009年第6期535-536,共2页Acta Editologica

摘　　要：特色栏目是科技期刊核心竞争力的重要特征和保证。在特色栏目运作中,编辑既要及时抓住当前科技发展的重大问题,开展有针对性的选题组稿,更要开展预测性分析,使特色栏目主动、灵活地适应社会和科技发展的要求,实现推陈出新和可持续发展。情报学研究中的预测分析方法——德尔菲法,能够帮助期刊编辑准确把握本学科某一领域的发展规律,并对其未来发展进行预测,为科学设置栏目提供参考依据。Featuring columns play an important role in the improving of academic standards and competitiveness in sci-tech periodicals. In the operation of featuring columns, editors not only need to seize the current momentous issues of technology in time to solicit contributions, but also need to carry out forecasting analyses to make the featuring columns adapt the requirements of social and technological development. As a forecasting analysis method in information science research, Delphi method can help editors to grasp the movement of an academic field and forecast its future development, and can provide a reference for setting new featuring columns.

关 键 词：科技期刊 特色栏目 德尔菲法 预测 

分 类 号：G232[文化科学]