生源趋势预测  

作　　者：邓宏亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西宜春学院经济与管理学院,336000

出　　处：《大众文艺（学术版）》2009年第22期28-29,共2页

基　　金：江西省教育规划课题<基于生源短缺趋势下江西地方高校生存发展研究>(编号:08YB177)阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：本文运用灰色系统理论对小学、初中在校学生数建立动态模型,并运用该模型进行趋势预测,这一趋势也必将导致高中在校学生数及高中毕业人数将会呈明显的下降趋势。因此对于一直处于规模扩张的高校来说,不久的未来一定将出现严重的生源短缺现象。This thesis mainly apply the gray system theory to establish a dynamic model for the number of the primary and junior secondary school students,which forcasts the their trend,and the trend will certainly lead to be a obvious deciting for both the number of the high schools students and the graduated number of the high schools.Thereby the universities that had been expanding their scale will apper a ferice phenomenon of the sector recruits shortage after not too long time.

关 键 词：在校学生 灰色系统理论 动态模型 趋势预测 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学]