敏感设备电压暂降敏感度的模糊随机评估  

Fuzzy-random Assessment Method of Equipment Sensitivity to Voltage Sags

作　　者：肖先勇[1] 杨洪耕[1] 陈武[1] 李华强[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,四川省成都市610065

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2009年第34期90-95,共6页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50877049;50677041);四川省应用基础研究项目(2008JY0043-2)~~

摘　　要：敏感设备的电压暂降敏感度一般用设备故障率来描述,其大小取决于供电系统在供电点处产生的电压暂降特性与敏感设备电压耐受能力,但供电系统电压暂降和设备耐受能力均具有不确定性,对其准确评估和预测很难。考虑两者的不确定性,把电压暂降引起的敏感设备故障定义为模糊随机事件,引入模糊随机变量的概念,建立电压暂降引起的敏感设备故障概率的模糊随机评估模型,利用模糊随机变量的λ–截集,把模糊随机变量的概率求解问题转化为普通随机变量的概率求解,保证了评估方法的可行性。用个人计算机(personal computers,PC)仿真并与蒙特卡罗随机模拟结果比较,证明该方法的正确性和可行性,评估结果符合客观实际。The sensitivity of sensitive equipment to voltage sag is usually expressed by the failure rate of equipment caused by voltage sag. The failure rate depends on the characteristics of voltage sag at power supply site and the equipment voltage tolerance. These characteristics are uncertain resulting in the difficulty in assessment and prediction. The uncertainties of voltage sags and voltage tolerance of sensitive equipment were synthetically considered to assess the failure rate of sensitive equipment due to voltage sag. The events of equipment failure due to voltage sags were defined as fuzzy-random events. The concept of fuzzy-random variable was introduced to discribe the variety of sensitive equipment failure event caused by voltage sag. The fuzzy-random based assessment principle and approaches were proposed. The method of/l-cut sets for the fuzzy-random variable was used to convert the problem of fuzzy-random probability into classical probability problem. This method had effectively ensured the feasibility of the assessing method. The proposed method was used to assess the sensitivity of personal computers to voltage sags. The simulation results were compared with the results of Monte Carlo simulation also. It has been proved that the proposed method is proper and feasible and the evaluation results are consistent with the practical experiences.

关 键 词：敏感设备 电压凹陷 模糊随机变量 敏感度 评估方法 Λ-截集 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]