新疆草原蝗虫发生面积与大气环流特征量指数模型的研究  

Study on the model between the area of grasshopper occurrence and indexes of atmospheric circulation

作　　者：傅玮东[1] 姚艳丽[1] 李新建[2] 刘静[3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区气象信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《草业科学》2009年第12期124-130,共7页Pratacultural Science

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题"现代农村信息化关键技术研究与示范"(2006BAD10A00);科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目"北方草原蝗虫气象监测预测服务系统推广应用"(2007GB24160443)

摘　　要：通过对1986-2003年新疆草原蝗虫发生面积与大气环流指数74项特征值的相关分析,筛选出与新疆蝗虫发生有显著关系的大气环流指数因子,采用逐步回归方法建立4个新疆蝗虫发生面积预测预报模型,并对模型进行了检验。利用模型对2004-2006年新疆蝗虫发生面积进行延伸预测,并与实际蝗虫发生面积进行比对,最终挑选出预报准确率在85%以上、对新疆草原蝗虫发生面积趋势具有一定预报能力和应用价值的模型,并初步分析了大气环流特征量与蝗虫发生面积的关系。By analyzing the correlation between the area of grasshopper occurrence and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2003, the factors of atmospheric circulation which were significant related with grasshopper occurrence were selected. And then, 4 models for predicting the area of grasshopper occurrence were established by using the successive regression and tested. The area of grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2006 were predicted with these models, then the predicted and actual results were compared and a model, its accuracy rate for prediction was more than 85%, was selected. Meanwhile, the relationship between the factors of atmospheric circulation and the area of grasshopper oeeurrenee were analyzed.

关 键 词：大气环流指数 蝗虫发生面积 预测模型 新疆 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学]