我国利率与就业关系的实证分析  

A Correlation Analysis of China's Interest Rate and Employment

作　　者：宋劲松[1] 张永军[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家行政学院国家应急管理培训中心(筹),北京100089 [2]中国国际经济交流中心,北京100017

出　　处：《教学与研究》2009年第12期5-9,共5页Teaching and Research

摘　　要：本文运用我国1990—2007年的相关数据,对利率与就业的关系进行了实证分析。我国农业与非农产业就业变化与利率的关系呈现出明显的差异,农业部门的就业与实际利率呈现同向关系,非农产业的就业与实际利率呈现反向关系,这种情况的出现与我国呈现典型的二元结构特征、农业发挥劳动力"蓄水池"的作用及现行农村劳动力就业统计方法有密切关系。This paper presents a correlation analysis of the interest rate and employment of China, using evidence from the relevant data between 1990 and 2007. The study shows that significant difference exists between fields of agriculture and non-agriculture in the relation of rate and employment changes. In agriculture there is positive directional relation between employment and the actual rate; and in non-agriculture the relation is negative directional. The authors hold that this phenomenon is closely related to factors specific of the Chinese situations such as the typical characters of dual structure, role of agriculture as a ＂reservoir＂ of labors, and the current statistic method of estimating rural employment.

关 键 词：就业弹性 实际利率 二元结构 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]