1995-2008年浙江省嘉善县细菌性痢疾流行特征分析  

An analysis on epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Jiashan County,Zhejiang Province,1995-2008

作　　者：沈玉华[1] 王平[1] 

机构地区：[1]嘉善县疾病预防控制中心,浙江314100

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2009年第12期1093-1095,共3页Chinese Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析嘉善县1995-2008年细菌性痢疾的流行特征和发病趋势,为有效防控细菌性痢疾流行提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对1995-2008年菌痢发病人群进行分析;利用圆形分布,得出发病高峰日期;参照指数曲线法,建立菌痢预测模型方程公式,并对相关数据进行预测拟合。结果嘉善县1995-2008年菌痢平均发病率为31.13/10万,以流动人口较多的镇发病率最高,病例以农民、散居儿童为主,发病主要集中在夏秋季,高峰日为8月25日;获得指数曲线预测模型方程Y^=e290.879-0.144X。结论应针对农民与儿童发病多、夏秋季发病多等特点采取针对性综合防治措施,防止暴发疫情的发生,把菌痢发病率控制在较低水平。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of bacillary dysentery in Jiashan county from 1995 to 2008. Methods The characteristics of bacillary dysentery were described and analyzed by descriptive study method. Rotundity distribution was used to analyze the incidence peak and the index-curve model was simulated to forecast the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery. Results Average incidence rate of bacillary dysentery was 31.13/100 000 and it was higher in farmers and uninstitutioned children at the region of emigrants . The period of high incidence was in summer and autumn and the peak of incidence rate was on August 25. The equation of index-curve forecast model was established as Y= e^290.879-0.144x Conclusion Measures aimed at farmers, uninstltutioned children and high incidence seasons of summer and autumn should be taken into consideration in preventing and controlling the outbreak of bacillary dysentery.

关 键 词：细菌性痢疾 流行特征 趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]