结构失衡、“潮涌现象”与通胀—通缩逆转  

Structural Imbalance,Wave Phenomenon and Inflation-Deflation Inverse

作　　者：万光彩[1,2] 陈璋[1] 刘莉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学 [2]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2009年第12期3-18,共16页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(编号:06&ZD010);2007年度教育部人文社科项目(编号:07JC790048);2008年度教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(编号:08JC790001)的资助

摘　　要：基于"潮涌现象"、劳动生产率非平衡增长和工资非平衡增长率三个宏观经济典型化事实,本文构建了一个结构性物价水平决定模型。我们发现,我国的通货膨胀率内生于两大产业部门之间的劳动生产率差异,并在农民收入追赶机制和"潮涌现象"的总需求效应机制的作用下被强化推高。但由于两大产业部门工资差距的不断拉大和"潮涌现象"形成的巨大产能,使得我国在能够维持"高增长低通胀"的同时,也面临外部环境恶化净出口剧降所造成的产能过剩和通货紧缩风险。因此,既防通胀又防通缩是我国宏观经济政策的两难。Based on the three macroeconomic stylized factors, wave phenomenon, imbalance growth in productivity and wage growth rate, this paper constructs a model that determines the structural price level. The main finding is China＇s inflation rate is endogenized in the gap between the productivities of two main industrial sectors, and strengthened by two mechanisms： peasants＇ income catch- up mechanism and the aggregate demand effect mechanism of wave phenomenon. Since the wage gap between two industrial sectors is getting larger, and the huge production capability caused by wave phenomenon, Chinese economy on the one hand, maintains high growth and low inflation, on the other hand, faces the risks of excessive production and deflation due to the cut in net export affected by the deteriorating external factors. So, China is in a dilemma of against both inflation and deflation.

关 键 词：典型化事实 结构性通货膨胀模型 潮涌现象 收入追赶机制 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]