青藏高原东北侧强降水变化特征及其气候重现期计算  

Change Characteristics and Climate Return Periods Calculation of Heavy Precipitation in the Northeast Side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：黄涛[1,2,3] 刘治国[2,4] 邓振镛[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃临夏回族自治州气象局,甘肃临夏731100 [3]甘肃省气象局,甘肃兰州730020 [4]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2009年第4期314-319,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然基金"中国西部地区秋季降水机制研究"(40675066)资助

摘　　要：选取青藏高原东北侧临夏回族自治州的6个代表气象站点自建站以来的强降水(日降水量≥25.0 mm)资料,对该地区强降水的时空分布及气候变化特征进行了分析;利用Pearson-Ⅲ概率分布方法对强降水异常气候重现期进行了计算。结果显示,自20世纪80年代以来,该区域强降水日数呈显著增多趋势;对2008年8月20日一次强降水过程进行的重现期计算显示,与人工估算结果相符。The heavy precipitation was analyzed based on the data from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia which is located in the northeast side of Qinghai - Tibet Plateau. At first, the spatial and temporal distribution of heavy precipitation in this region was analyzed, and then, the return periods of heavy precipitation was assessed by Pearson - III distribution method. Resuits show that the days of heavy precipitation increased conspicuously since the 1980s. The return period was calculated about a heavy precipitation event in this region occurred on August 20, 2008 , and the result accorded with the artificial - assessment.

关 键 词：青藏高原东北侧 气候变化 强降水 重现期 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]