环境规制政策与中国经济增长——基于一种可计算非线性动态投入产出模型  

China's Environment Regulation Policy on Its Economic Growth——Based on a Computable Nonlinear Dynamic Input-output model

作　　者：李泳[1] 李金青[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国政法大学商学院,北京102249 [2]中国人民大学附属中学,北京100000

出　　处：《系统工程》2009年第11期7-13,共7页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：依据1995～2005年中国19个省市20部门投入产出表及统计年鉴相关数据构造出中国可计算非线性动态投入产出模型，并用此模型定量模拟研究了环境规制政策对行业产出及经济增长的影响。结果表明：治理污染投资的增加使得GDP下降，下降的幅度呈现出拟指数的快速上升趋势；机动车尾气排放控制对GDP的影响极其有限；能源价格适度提高不会对经济增长产生大的抑制作用。文章给出了我国稳妥和慎重的环境规制政策的取向。A computable nonlinear dynamic input-output model is constructed according to the data of statistical yearbooks and I-O table from 20-sector in 19 province during 1995-2005. The model is used to make a quantitative simulated study to test how China＇s environmental regulations influence industry output and its economic growth. The empirical findings reveal that the pollution abatement investment decrease the GDP growth with a rate of exponential increase; Motor vehicle emissions control has very limited negative effect on GDP growth; A moderate increase of the price of energy will not damper the economic development. The article also points out a direction for a safe and sustainable environmental regulation policy.

关 键 词：环境规制政策 可计算非线性动态投入产出模型 中国经济增长 

分 类 号：F064[经济管理—政治经济学]