闽北冬季最低气温短期预报方法  

The short-term forecast method of the winter lowest temperature in northern Fujian

作　　者：周博扬[1] 罗旭[1] 张信华[1] 魏入圣[1] 谢丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省南平市气象局,南平353000

出　　处：《福建气象》2009年第5期7-10,共4页

摘　　要：通过对闯北地区近30年冬季极端最低气温、平均最低气温变化趋势及分布特征的分析，找出在冬季影响低温天气的相关气象因子，结合闽北地区的气候特点，总结出相关气象要素对冬季最低气温的影响和最低气温的预报方法。结果表明：最低气温出现主要取决于夜间的降温程度，降温程度又因天空状况、冷空气强度而异。同时把握好冷空气的移动路径和速度将是成功预报最低气温的关键。By analyzing the trend and distribution characteristics of winter extremely lowest temperature and average lowest temperature in northern Fujian for 30 years, the correlation factors whieh influence low temperature in winter are finded out. Combining the weather characteristics of northern Fujian, the influence of correlation factors and forecast method to lowest temperature are summarized.The results show that： the lowest temperature appearing mainly be decided by temperature decreasing in night,which depend on the sky condition and the strength of cold air. Holding the path and speed of cold air is the key which successfully forecast lowest temperature.

关 键 词：冬季 最低气温 预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162[农业科学—农业气象学]